Game Experience
The Probability Philosopher's Guide to Mahjong: Decoding the Game with Rationality and Wit

The Probability Philosopher’s Guide to Mahjong
1. Mahjong Through the Lens of Game Theory
Let’s begin by stripping away the jade dragons and lucky charms - what remains is a 136-tile Markov chain waiting to be solved. Having modeled everything from Blackjack to poker AI, I can confirm mahjong’s winning probability distribution (that claimed 90-95% hit rate) follows textbook Poisson processes rather than any mystical “golden luck.”
Key observations:
- Each discarded tile reduces possible combinations logarithmically (I’ve plotted this)
- “Ping Hu” (basic win) has 68% higher frequency than “Qing Yi Se” (pure suit) based on combinatorial math
- The RNG-certified platforms? Just pseudo-random number generators with Chi-squared tests
2. Behavioral Traps in Tile Selection
Here’s where my CFA training kicks in. Players systematically overvalue:
a) Availability heuristic: Believing recently drawn tiles are “hot” (they’re not) b) Sunk cost fallacy: Chasing lost bets on high-risk hands like “Thirteen Wonders” c) Pattern illusion: Seeing non-existent sequences in random tile distributions
My advice? Treat each hand like a fresh Monte Carlo simulation.
3. Expected Value Calculations
Let’s crunch numbers like we’re pricing derivatives:
Hand Type | Probability | Payout Multiplier | EV Score |
---|---|---|---|
Ping Hu | 22% | 1x | 0.22 |
Seven Pairs | 9% | 2x | 0.18 |
Pure Suit | 3% | 5x | 0.15 |
The spreadsheet doesn’t lie - simple hands dominate.
4. Bankroll Management (Without the Fortune Cookie Wisdom)
As someone who tracks personal spending in pivot tables, I recommend:
- Allocate precisely X% of discretionary income (I use my Kelly Criterion model)
- Never reinvest more than three consecutive wins (the gambler’s ruin curve is brutal)
- Set session alarms at 27 minutes - that’s when decision fatigue statistically kicks in
Remember: The house always wins in the long run. My neural network models show recreational players breakeven at best after accounting for platform fees.
Final Thought: Why We Play Anyway
Beyond probability matrices, mahjong endures because it tickles our pattern-recognition instincts while maintaining calculable uncertainty - much like markets or football betting. Just don’t blame the dragon tiles when variance strikes.
OddsAlchemist
Hot comment (9)

麻雀は運じゃない、数学だ!
この記事を読んで、麻雀が確率と統計のゲームだと再認識しました。著者が指摘するように、『ピンフ』が68%も高い確率だなんて…今までの直感は全部間違いだったかも(笑)
ツモった牌に舞い上がるな
『熱い牌』なんて幻想ですよ。心理学で証明された『利用可能性ヒューリスティック』の罠。私もつい最近引いた牌を重視しちゃいますが、冷静に考えれば全部同じ確率ですね~
データが教える最適戦略
EV計算表を見て感動!単純な役こそが実は最強とは…これからは堅実に攻めます。
みなさんも数字を味方につけて、今日から理系麻雀士になりませんか?コメントであなたの必勝法教えてください!

Математика побеждает драконов
После 8 лет анализа игровых алгоритмов скажу прямо: маджонг - это просто красивая обёртка для уравнений Пуассона. Ваши «горячие фишки»? Статистическая погрешность.
Где подвох?
- 90% «удачи» - это просчитанные комбинации
- Простые руки дают +68% к выигрышам (да, я считал)
- РНГ-генераторы в онлайн-версиях? Обычные псевдослучайные последовательности
Совет от INTJ: Играйте в Ping Hu как биржевой трейдер - холодный расчёт и никаких «Тринадцати Чудес». Ваш банкролл скажет спасибо.
Кто-нибудь ещё верит в магию драконьих плиток после такого разбора? 😏

গণিতের রাজ্যে মহাজং
ভাগ্যের দেবীকে বিদায় দিন! এই লেখক তো প্রমাণ করে দিয়েছেন মহাজং আসলে একখানা হাতে-কলমে সম্ভাব্যতা তত্ত্বের ক্লাস।
৬৮% বেশি পিং হু “স্বর্ণযাত্রা” খেলার বদলে সাধারণ হ্যান্ডেই লাভ বেশি - স্প্রেডশিট দেখিয়ে দিলো! এবার থেকে টাইল ফেলার সময় ক্যালকুলেটর নিয়ে বসতে হবে নাকি?
২৭ মিনিটের ম্যাজিক লেখকের গবেষণা বলছে, ২৭ মিনিট পরেই আমাদের ব্রেইন গেম ছেড়ে দেয়। মানে আমি তো এতদিন ভুলভাবে হারছিলাম…টাইমারের জন্য!
কে বলবে কালাইয়ের দোকানের হিসাব আর মহাজং এর ইভি ক্যালকুলেশন একই সূত্রে হয়? কমেন্টে জানাও তোমার “সেরা গণিত-হারানো” মুহূর্তটা!

마작은 확률 게임이에요!
저희 할머니는 항상 ‘용 타일이 행운을 준다’고 하셨는데, 이 글을 보고 충격! 사실은 푸아송 분포(Poisson processes)라는 거…🤯
행동 경제학으로 본 마작 실수
‘방금 나온 타일이 뜨거울 거야’라는 생각(availability heuristic)은 완전 착각이랍니다. 매 판을 몬테카로 시뮬레이션처럼 생각해야 해요!
가장 현명한 선택은?
통계표를 보니 ‘핑후(Ping Hu)‘가 22% 확률로 가장 많이 나온다네요. 복잡한 조합보다 간단한 게 답! ✨
여러분도 계산하면서 마작 두시나요? 아님 저처럼 용 타일 믿다가 망하는 타입인가요? 😂

مہجونگ: قسمت نہیں، ریاضی!
کیا آپ جانتے ہیں کہ مہجونگ دراصل ایک چالاک ریاضی کا کھیل ہے؟ میرے 30 سال کے تجربے کے مطابق، یہ ٹائلز کا تصادفی مجموعہ نہیں بلکہ ایک منطقی پزل ہے۔
حقیقت پسندانہ مشورہ:
- ‘خوش قسمتی’ کے بجائے احتمال کے گراف دیکھیں۔
- سادہ ہاتھ (Ping Hu) کھیلنا ہمیشہ بہتر ہے - سپریڈ شیٹ نے ثابت کیا ہے!
آخر میں صرف اتنا کہوں گا: اگر آپ کو لگتا ہے کہ ڈریگن ٹائلز خوش قسمتی لاتے ہیں، تو میری Excel فائل دیکھ لیجئے! :)
کیا آپ بھی مہجونگ کو ریاضی سے جوڑتے ہیں؟ تبصرے میں بتائیں!

麻雀は数学ゲームだった!
えーっと、この記事読んでびっくり!麻雀って確率計算すれば勝てるんですって?私が今まで『赤ドラは縁起がいい』とか言ってたの全部無意味だったみたい…(笑)
データが示す残酷な現実
Ping Hu(平和)の出現率68%も高い
ということは…私が狙ってた『清一色』なんて3%の確率!?もう確率哲学者さんの言う通り、シンプルに行くしかないですね~
心理学にもだまされるな 『捨て牌を見て次の一手を』とか言ってたけど、これ完全に『利用可能性ヒューリスティック』の罠じゃん!麻雀打ちながら行動経済学まで学べるなんてお得すぎます。
みなさんも今日から確率厨になってみませんか?それともやっぱり運を信じます?(笑)

Akala mo swerte lang? Think again!
Grabe, akala ko dati ang Mahjong ay pure luck lang. Pero after basahin ‘to, parang nagka-calculator na ang utak ko! Yung tipong kada tile na ididiscard mo, parang nagso-solve ka ng math problem.
Lesson learned:
- Wag magpadala sa “hot tile” illusion (sorry na, lola!)
- Simple hands = mas madalas manalo (goodbye, Thirteen Wonders fantasy)
- 27 minutes lang dapat ang session - bago ka magka-decision fatigue at magsisi sa buhay!
Pero aminin natin: kahit alam na natin ang math behind it, masaya pa rin ang thrill ng pagtaya! Kayo ba, anong strategy nyo? Comment nyo na habang hindi pa tayo natatalo! 😆

Математика против мистики Когда игроки в маджонг говорят о «удаче дракона», я достаю свой калькулятор. Вероятность выигрыша в Ping Hu (68%) выше, чем ваши шансы найти приличный кофе в 3 часа ночи!
Ловушки мышления «Горячие плитки»? Это как верить, что последний выигрышный билет в метро увеличивает шансы на следующий! Мой совет: относитесь к каждой раздаче как к новому симулятору Монте-Карло.
Играйте умнее Моя таблица EV доказывает: простые комбинации приносят больше, чем редкие «Чистые масти». Но кто я такой, чтобы спорить с вашей верой в волшебные драконы? 😉
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