Crunching Numbers at the Mahjong Table

Probability Doesn’t Sleep
When I first sat down at a competitive mahjong table (between coding sessions in LA), I saw not mysticism but standard deviations. Those ‘Golden Dragon’ jackpots? Just binomial distributions wearing fancy costumes. My applied math degree suddenly became useful outside the casino blackjack tables.

The House Always Wins… Or Does It?

Let’s talk winning probabilities:

• Basic Hu hands: 85-92% occurrence (my Monte Carlo simulation says)
• Premium combos:
  • Seven Pairs: 6.3%
  • All Honors: 2.1% (worth chasing only during bonus events)

Pro Tip: The ‘Golden Flame’ bonus multiplies EV by 1.7x—but only between 7-9 PM local time. Coincidence? That’s Poisson distribution territory.

Bankroll Management for Math Nerds

I apply Kelly Criterion to my Rs.1000 daily budget:

When Algorithms Meet Intuition

The perfect hybrid strategy:

1. Track last 20 discards (Markov chain analysis)
2. Calculate remaining tile probabilities
3. Then ignore everything and go with your gut (ENTP personality mandatory)

True story: Won Rs.12K by abandoning Bayesian inference to chase a straight flush… while humming the Pacific Rim theme.